Hello!
I was thinking … it is very very likely that the fed is done raising rates and very very likely they will lower rates at some point this year. No one knows for certain. But in the absence of new increased inflation let’s guess - if things don’t change - 90 percent likely?
I don’t know for sure. No one does. I get that. And everyone might guess a different number. But I think most people agree it is very very likely they will lower rates.
If they lower rates, bond prices should go up up up correct? You should be able to sell your 5 percent bond for about 25 percent more than the new 4 percent bond right?
And yet people are not flooding the market buying as many bonds or treasuries as they can anticipating this correct? And yet they will once the fed declares they are lowering rates.
I think we all agree that the Fed is very very likely to lower rates and when they do the price will increase a lot. And I think everyone anticipates this. And I think it is likely to happen sometime this year. So if the markets are efficient. Why hasn’t everyone jumped in yet?
Just something I was thinking. Yes I know market timing. But is it wrong?
I was thinking … it is very very likely that the fed is done raising rates and very very likely they will lower rates at some point this year. No one knows for certain. But in the absence of new increased inflation let’s guess - if things don’t change - 90 percent likely?
I don’t know for sure. No one does. I get that. And everyone might guess a different number. But I think most people agree it is very very likely they will lower rates.
If they lower rates, bond prices should go up up up correct? You should be able to sell your 5 percent bond for about 25 percent more than the new 4 percent bond right?
And yet people are not flooding the market buying as many bonds or treasuries as they can anticipating this correct? And yet they will once the fed declares they are lowering rates.
I think we all agree that the Fed is very very likely to lower rates and when they do the price will increase a lot. And I think everyone anticipates this. And I think it is likely to happen sometime this year. So if the markets are efficient. Why hasn’t everyone jumped in yet?
Just something I was thinking. Yes I know market timing. But is it wrong?
Statistics: Posted by KBR — Sat Feb 03, 2024 9:52 pm — Replies 3 — Views 138